KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

67%

66%

64%

62%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

WN2NO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	24.6%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.4%	—	14.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	50.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	33.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	6.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	26.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	48.6%	19.9%	0.0%	19.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	58.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	56.6%	65.0%	53.6%	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	61.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	60.6%	50.8%	22.2%	57.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	45.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	18.4%	48.4%	33.0%	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	54.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	61.5%	62.3%	16.8%	53.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	11.9%	67.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	68.6%	79.2%	70.9%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	62.4%	72.9%	—	66.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	55.5%	83.4%	68.6%	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	63.9%	84.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	56.8%	81.7%	81.7%	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	44.0%	63.7%	—	72.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	61.2%	68.8%	80.3%	77.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	60.5%	73.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	72.7%	79.4%	77.0%	80.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	80.2%	83.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	78.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	74.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	73.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	73.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗