KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

55%

54%

54%

49%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	32.1%	26.4%	28.2%	59.0%	63.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	32.1%	26.4%	41.5%	59.0%	63.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	32.1%	26.4%	41.5%	59.0%	63.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	32.1%	26.4%	41.5%	59.0%	63.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	32.1%	26.4%	41.5%	59.0%	63.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	41.5%	75.2%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	41.5%	75.2%	66.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	41.5%	75.2%	66.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	41.5%	75.2%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	38.3%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	38.3%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	38.3%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	38.3%	26.4%	45.7%	75.2%	66.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	38.3%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	38.3%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	36.1%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	36.1%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	36.1%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	36.1%	81.5%	44.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	36.1%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	36.1%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	36.1%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	36.1%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	55.6%	50.9%	47.6%	74.9%	48.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	54.9%	50.9%	47.6%	73.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	54.9%	50.9%	47.6%	73.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	54.9%	50.9%	47.6%	73.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	54.9%	50.9%	47.6%	73.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	54.9%	50.9%	47.6%	73.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	54.9%	54.4%	53.9%	73.7%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗