KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

55%

54%

54%

49%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

ICONNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.70u · ICON −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	16.7%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	38.8%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	7.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	22.6%	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	26.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	16.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	34.9%	11.5%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	44.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	42.0%	50.7%	39.2%	30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	46.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	45.4%	35.8%	12.5%	42.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	30.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	9.7%	33.0%	20.1%	32.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	45.0%	45.8%	8.3%	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.4%	50.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	51.7%	64.6%	54.4%	40.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	44.6%	56.3%	—	49.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	37.3%	69.5%	50.9%	42.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	45.3%	69.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	37.6%	66.1%	66.1%	54.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	25.7%	44.0%	—	54.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	40.8%	49.0%	63.1%	59.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	39.5%	54.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	52.2%	60.8%	57.6%	61.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	61.1%	66.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗