KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

39%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

AIFSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.35u · AIFS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.5%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.5%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.5%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.5%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.5%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	12.8%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	12.4%	25.2%	12.8%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	12.4%	25.2%	12.8%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	10.3%	25.2%	12.8%	32.9%	2.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	10.6%	25.2%	13.1%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	13.1%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	13.1%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	18.3%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	18.3%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	18.3%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	10.6%	20.1%	18.3%	33.1%	2.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	18.3%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	18.3%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	18.3%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	18.3%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	8.6%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	11.0%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	11.0%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	11.0%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	11.0%	20.1%	23.9%	62.8%	63.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	8.3%	15.0%	20.2%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	20.2%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	20.2%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	61.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	25.3%	21.1%	55.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	25.3%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	7.0%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	5.2%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	5.2%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	5.2%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	5.2%	14.9%	24.7%	71.8%	55.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	21.8%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	21.8%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	21.8%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	28.0%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	28.0%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	12.1%	29.1%	28.0%	35.2%	58.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	28.0%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	28.0%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	28.0%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	28.0%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	28.0%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	12.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	22.5%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	28.8%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	28.8%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	28.8%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	28.8%	29.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	9.6%	29.1%	28.8%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	9.6%	29.1%	28.8%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	9.6%	29.1%	28.8%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	9.6%	29.1%	28.8%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	9.6%	29.1%	28.8%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	9.6%	36.9%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	9.6%	36.9%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	9.6%	36.9%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	7.5%	36.9%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	7.5%	36.9%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	14.2%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	20.3%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	20.3%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	20.3%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	7.5%	39.3%	20.3%	54.8%	55.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	20.3%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	20.3%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	20.3%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	20.3%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	6.9%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	9.2%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	9.2%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	9.2%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	9.2%	39.3%	21.1%	64.1%	49.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	71%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	76.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	71.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗