KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

39%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

AIFSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.35u · AIFS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	9.8%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	26.8%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.0%	5.6%	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	36.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	42.3%	23.0%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	19.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	38.5%	48.5%	21.5%	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	34.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	29.6%	11.0%	17.4%	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	30.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	39.0%	36.7%	21.2%	28.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	31.2%	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	28.6%	41.7%	13.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	27.4%	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	46.5%	40.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	18.4%	27.9%	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	33.9%	13.9%	12.9%	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	26.1%	19.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	21.0%	3.5%	24.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	7.3%	29.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	71%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	76.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	71.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗