KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

82%

79%

65%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.2¢Risks 77.15u

EPSNO 22.8¢Risks 22.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.85u · EPS −22.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	39.7%	43.5%	34.7%	31.6%	25.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	39.7%	43.5%	37.7%	31.6%	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	39.7%	43.5%	37.7%	31.6%	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	39.7%	43.5%	37.7%	31.6%	25.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	62.3%	43.5%	37.7%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	62.3%	43.5%	37.7%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	62.3%	43.5%	37.7%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	62.3%	43.5%	37.7%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	62.3%	43.5%	37.7%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	62.3%	47.5%	68.9%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	62.3%	47.5%	68.9%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	62.3%	47.5%	68.9%	73.8%	27.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	67.1%	47.5%	68.9%	73.5%	27.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	67.1%	47.5%	68.8%	73.8%	27.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	69.8%	47.4%	60.1%	86.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	69.8%	47.4%	68.1%	86.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	69.8%	47.4%	68.1%	86.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	69.8%	47.4%	68.1%	86.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	69.8%	47.4%	68.1%	86.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	74.1%	47.4%	68.1%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	74.1%	47.4%	68.1%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	74.1%	47.4%	68.1%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	74.1%	47.4%	68.1%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	74.1%	47.4%	68.1%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	74.1%	59.8%	68.7%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	74.1%	59.8%	68.7%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	74.1%	59.8%	68.7%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	77.9%	59.7%	68.7%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	77.9%	59.7%	68.7%	77.1%	93.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	77.3%	62.1%	78.9%	55.5%	67.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	77.3%	62.1%	78.2%	55.5%	67.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	77.3%	62.1%	78.2%	55.5%	67.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	77.3%	62.1%	78.2%	55.5%	67.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	79.0%	62.1%	78.2%	88.5%	89.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	79.0%	62.1%	78.2%	88.5%	89.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	79.0%	62.1%	78.2%	88.5%	89.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	79.0%	62.1%	78.2%	88.5%	89.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	79.0%	62.1%	78.2%	88.5%	89.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	79.0%	65.2%	81.9%	88.5%	89.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	80.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗