KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

82%

79%

65%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.2¢Risks 77.15u

EPSNO 22.8¢Risks 22.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.85u · EPS −22.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.6%	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	1.1%	15.1%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	43.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	2.4%	6.9%	0.8%	17.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	7.4%	26.6%	50.0%	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	53.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	40.2%	73.6%	49.2%	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	77.1%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	90.0%	77.6%	78.2%	42.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	81.6%	—	57.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	50.8%	83.8%	65.5%	45.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	28.1%	55.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	82.8%	51.7%	69.3%	62.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	81.0%	75.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	80.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗