KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

79%

65%

64%

50%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

EPSNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.30u · EPS −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:54+00:00	22.7%	30.5%	9.1%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	9.1%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	9.1%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	9.1%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	22.7%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	13.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	19.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	19.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	19.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	15.4%	38.4%	19.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	15.4%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	21.6%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	24.0%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	24.0%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	27.1%	28.4%	24.0%	21.5%	19.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	47.8%	28.4%	24.0%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	47.8%	28.4%	24.0%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	47.8%	28.4%	24.0%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	47.8%	28.4%	24.0%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	47.8%	28.4%	24.0%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	47.8%	35.3%	52.6%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	47.8%	35.3%	52.6%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	47.8%	35.3%	52.6%	63.1%	19.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	52.9%	35.3%	52.6%	62.9%	19.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	52.9%	35.3%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	52.9%	35.0%	52.6%	63.1%	19.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	52.6%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	52.6%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	52.6%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	52.6%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	52.6%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	50.0%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	43.2%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	51.7%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	51.7%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	51.7%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	55.9%	35.0%	51.7%	78.5%	52.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	59.6%	35.0%	51.7%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	59.6%	35.0%	51.7%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	59.6%	35.0%	51.7%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	59.6%	35.0%	51.7%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	59.6%	35.0%	51.7%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	59.6%	44.7%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	59.6%	44.7%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	59.6%	44.7%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	64.2%	44.7%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	64.2%	44.7%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	50.0%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	66.9%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	66.9%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	66.9%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	64.2%	47.0%	66.9%	65.4%	87.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	58.8%	47.0%	66.9%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	58.8%	47.0%	66.9%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	58.8%	47.0%	66.9%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	58.8%	47.0%	66.9%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	58.8%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	58.8%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	58.8%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	62.4%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	61.5%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	61.5%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	63.4%	46.9%	61.5%	41.8%	55.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	64.4%	46.9%	61.5%	78.8%	79.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	64.4%	46.9%	61.5%	78.8%	79.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	64.4%	46.9%	61.5%	78.8%	79.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	64.4%	46.9%	61.5%	78.8%	79.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	64.4%	46.9%	61.5%	78.8%	79.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	64.6%	78.8%	79.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	80.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	74.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗