KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

79%

65%

64%

50%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

EPSNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.30u · EPS −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.4%	8.5%	—	18.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	30.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	1.0%	3.3%	0.3%	9.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	12.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	16.1%	35.7%	39.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	26.4%	59.8%	34.4%	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	63.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	81.1%	64.1%	64.8%	28.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	68.8%	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	34.5%	71.4%	49.2%	30.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	15.7%	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	69.3%	34.6%	52.6%	44.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	66.6%	59.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	79%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	80.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	77.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	74.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗