KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

83%

83%

40%

14%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	31.3%	95.3%	77.2%	56.2%	31.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	31.3%	95.3%	77.2%	56.2%	31.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	31.3%	95.3%	77.2%	56.2%	31.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	77.2%	56.2%	31.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	69.3%	95.1%	77.1%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	77.1%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	77.1%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	77.1%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	38.5%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	38.5%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	69.3%	95.3%	38.5%	56.2%	31.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	38.5%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	38.5%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	38.5%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	38.5%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	38.5%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	65.5%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	72.9%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	72.9%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	72.9%	95.3%	59.3%	67.9%	79.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	77.6%	92.0%	52.6%	44.6%	38.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	77.6%	92.0%	32.6%	44.6%	38.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	77.6%	92.0%	32.6%	44.6%	38.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	77.6%	92.0%	32.6%	44.6%	38.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	82.9%	92.0%	32.6%	82.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	82.9%	92.0%	32.6%	82.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	82.9%	92.0%	32.6%	82.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	82.9%	92.0%	32.6%	82.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	82.9%	92.0%	32.6%	82.9%	14.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	82.9%	99.3%	40.4%	82.9%	14.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	67.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	58.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	55.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗