KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

83%

83%

40%

14%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	29.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	36.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.5%	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	4.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	5.4%	11.1%	—	67.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	76.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	73.7%	23.0%	13.7%	51.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	18.4%	6.2%	71.5%	55.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	17.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	13.4%	47.7%	54.6%	51.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	3.3%	43.6%	59.5%	49.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	14.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	67.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	58.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	55.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗