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KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
86%
HRES
56%
WN2
37%
ICON
33%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u
VS
AIFSNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.15u · AIFS −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00ICON: 73.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00ICON: 73.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 73.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 73.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 73.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 32.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:0060.3%92.2%43.8%56.2%73.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0060.3%92.2%57.0%56.2%73.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0060.3%92.2%57.0%56.2%73.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0060.3%92.2%57.0%56.2%73.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0060.3%92.2%57.0%56.2%73.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:0058.1%92.2%57.0%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0058.1%92.2%57.0%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0058.1%92.2%57.0%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0058.1%92.2%57.0%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0058.1%92.2%57.0%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:0058.1%86.0%37.4%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:0058.1%86.0%37.4%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0058.1%86.0%37.4%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:004.0%85.7%37.4%56.0%32.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:004.0%85.7%37.4%56.0%32.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble86%71.9°F7.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES56%64.5°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 237%62.0°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend35%60.0°F8.9°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON33%60.3°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%54.0°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗