KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

56%

37%

33%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u

AIFSNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.15u · AIFS −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	19.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.6%	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	2.6%	5.9%	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	64.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	61.1%	13.7%	7.4%	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	10.3%	2.8%	58.0%	40.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	6.8%	33.0%	39.4%	36.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	23.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	1.2%	28.8%	43.6%	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	7.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	71.9°F	7.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	62.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	60.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	60.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	54.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗