WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
40%
HRES
4%
AIFS
1%
ICON
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 20.7¢Risks 20.65u
VS
WN2NO 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.35u · WN2 −79.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0010-17 13:4710-18 01:5810-18 11:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:001.8%40.4%1.4%1.5%2.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:001.8%40.5%1.4%1.5%2.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:001.8%40.4%1.4%1.5%2.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:001.8%40.4%1.4%1.5%2.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:001.8%40.4%1.4%1.5%2.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:001.4%40.4%0.1%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:001.4%40.4%0.1%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:001.4%40.4%0.1%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:001.4%40.4%0.1%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:001.4%40.4%0.1%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:001.4%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:001.4%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:001.4%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:002.3%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:002.3%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:002.3%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:002.3%40.4%0.3%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:002.3%40.4%0.9%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:002.3%40.4%0.9%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:002.3%40.4%0.9%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:002.3%40.4%0.9%3.1%25.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:001.4%40.4%0.9%3.5%1.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:001.4%40.4%0.9%3.5%1.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:001.4%40.4%0.9%3.5%1.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:001.4%40.4%0.9%3.5%1.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:001.4%40.4%0.9%3.5%1.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble40%74.6°F7.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend6%63.0°F8.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%64.5°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
AIFS Single1%64.6°F5.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON1%60.3°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%64.4°F5.1°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 13:47 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗