KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.7¢Risks 20.65u

WN2NO 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.35u · WN2 −79.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	40%	74.6°F	7.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	63.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	64.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	64.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 13:47 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗