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KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
EPS
58%
WN2
49%
AIFS
45%
ICON
12%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u
VS
ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 11:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:0045.2%57.8%49.3%94.7%12.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0045.2%57.8%49.3%94.7%12.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0045.2%57.8%49.3%94.7%12.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0045.2%57.8%49.3%94.7%12.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0045.2%57.8%49.3%94.7%12.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%72.9°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%64.4°F9.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend53%63.0°F7.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 249%62.4°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single45%61.8°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON12%50.9°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Time unavailable

Original listing: None

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗