KDEN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

58%

49%

45%

12%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.1%	—	53.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	87.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	51.3%	—	53.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	10.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.3%	62.0%	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	59.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	24.6%	52.1%	3.1%	86.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	94.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	52.9%	93.1%	32.3%	62.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	46.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	72.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.4°F	9.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	62.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	61.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	50.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗