KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

33%

20%

19%

10%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

WN2NO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.20u · WN2 −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	27.2%	99.5%	15.0%	29.6%	39.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	27.2%	99.5%	15.0%	29.6%	39.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	27.2%	99.5%	15.0%	29.6%	39.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	27.2%	99.5%	15.0%	29.6%	39.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	15.0%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	15.0%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	15.0%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	15.0%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	15.0%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	28.6%	99.5%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	28.6%	99.1%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	28.6%	99.1%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	33.0%	99.1%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	32.9%	98.9%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	32.9%	99.2%	10.4%	20.3%	19.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	73.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.9841
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	33%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0600
IFS HRES	20%	64.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0412
ICON	19%	64.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0365
WeatherNext 2	10%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0108

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗