KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

33%

20%

19%

10%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

WN2NO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.20u · WN2 −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	90.7%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	41.3%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	37.8%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	33.6%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	23.0%	8.7%	61.1%	—	71.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	5.3%	99.0%	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	74.2%	21.6%	87.5%	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	71.2%	56.4%	30.1%	—	75.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	81.6%	60.7%	38.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.8%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	49.1%	65.4%	9.7%	—	49.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	38.5%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	38.2%	57.3%	11.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	37.9%	57.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	21.8%	47.1%	10.7%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	25.7%	45.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	32.1%	37.8%	4.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.3%	35.5%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	22.1%	37.1%	8.1%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	18.3%	42.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	16.8%	39.6%	6.1%	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.2%	31.4%	4.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	7.5%	33.1%	7.5%	6.7%	13.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.8%	32.5%	6.4%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	7.9%	38.1%	4.6%	9.5%	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.2%	40.3%	5.8%	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.5%	45.7%	9.5%	12.2%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	10.5%	39.5%	7.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.8%	31.7%	3.4%	11.0%	1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.2%	33.9%	5.3%	—	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	73.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.9841
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	33%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1082
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0600
IFS HRES	20%	64.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0412
ICON	19%	64.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0365
WeatherNext 2	10%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0108

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗