KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

16%

10%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

WN2NO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · WN2 −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:58+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	23.6%	85.0%	15.5%	88.9%	39.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	36.0%	85.0%	15.5%	73.9%	71.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	36.0%	85.0%	15.5%	73.9%	71.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	36.0%	85.0%	15.5%	73.9%	71.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	36.0%	85.0%	15.5%	73.9%	71.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	36.0%	85.0%	15.5%	73.9%	71.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	36.0%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	36.0%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	36.0%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:45+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	28.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	31.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	31.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	53.8%	85.3%	31.4%	73.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:43+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	31.4%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	31.4%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	31.4%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	31.4%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	31.4%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	52.4%	85.3%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	52.4%	87.6%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	52.4%	87.6%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	27.0%	87.6%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	27.1%	87.4%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:37+00:00	27.1%	87.4%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	40.3%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	83.4%	65.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	18.2%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	27.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	25.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	25.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	25.1%	87.6%	20.9%	49.3%	74.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	10.4%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	28.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	10.4%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	28.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	10.4%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	10.4%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	10.4%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	28.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	9.6%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	8.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	9.6%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	8.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	9.6%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	8.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	9.6%	92.8%	6.3%	33.0%	8.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:51+00:00	9.6%	92.8%	6.3%	15.7%	8.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	9.6%	90.9%	2.9%	15.7%	8.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	9.6%	90.9%	2.9%	15.7%	8.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	9.6%	90.9%	2.9%	15.7%	8.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	10.0%	90.9%	2.9%	15.7%	8.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	10.0%	90.8%	2.9%	15.7%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	74.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.8245
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
National Blend	34%	69.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1136
IFS HRES	16%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0246
AIFS Single	10%	65.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0100
ICON	8%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0069
WeatherNext 2	3%	64.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗