KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

16%

10%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

WN2NO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · WN2 −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	81.1%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	21.2%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	17.6%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	10.2%	3.0%	40.3%	—	51.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.5%	96.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	53.0%	8.7%	71.7%	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	48.4%	33.0%	13.1%	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	60.7%	36.1%	17.8%	—	42.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	11.5%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	24.8%	39.6%	2.5%	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.6%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	16.0%	30.6%	2.8%	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	15.4%	30.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.5%	21.0%	2.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	8.0%	19.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.8%	13.9%	0.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.5%	12.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.6%	12.5%	1.3%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.0%	14.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.3%	12.7%	0.8%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.2%	8.2%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	8.5%	0.9%	0.7%	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	7.7%	0.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	9.5%	0.4%	1.0%	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.9%	9.8%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	11.5%	0.8%	1.2%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	8.0%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	4.8%	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	4.9%	0.2%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	74.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.8245
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
National Blend	34%	69.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1136
IFS HRES	16%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0246
AIFS Single	10%	65.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0100
ICON	8%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0069
WeatherNext 2	3%	64.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗