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KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
HRES
76%
ICON
28%
WN2
8%
AIFS
7%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u
VS
AIFSNO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.00u · AIFS −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS HRES: 75.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 01:2910-11 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:46+00:006.6%83.0%14.6%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:006.6%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:006.6%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:006.6%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:007.0%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:007.0%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:007.0%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:007.0%83.0%8.1%75.6%28.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%82.1°F9.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.6889
IFS HRES76%77.9°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.5715
National Blend52%74.0°F9.7°F2026-10-10 06:000.2714
ICON28%67.8°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0790
WeatherNext 28%66.6°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0066
AIFS Single7%65.3°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0049

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗