KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

76%

28%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

AIFSNO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.00u · AIFS −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	9.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.6%	0.8%	21.9%	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	89.0%	—	28.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	30.9%	2.7%	50.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	26.1%	14.9%	4.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	36.1%	16.2%	6.1%	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.3%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.0%	17.8%	0.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.0%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	11.5%	0.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.2%	10.8%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	6.2%	0.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	5.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	3.2%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	2.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	82.1°F	9.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6889
IFS HRES	76%	77.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.5715
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	9.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2714
ICON	28%	67.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0790
WeatherNext 2	8%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0066
AIFS Single	7%	65.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0049

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗