KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

81%

66%

48%

47%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

WN2NO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.40u · WN2 −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:38+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	41.1%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	41.1%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	41.1%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	65.3%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	55.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	54.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	54.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	54.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	74.5%	54.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	42.3%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	52.6%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	52.6%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	69.7%	99.9%	52.6%	79.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	52.6%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	52.6%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	52.6%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	52.6%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	52.6%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	47.3%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	47.3%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	47.3%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	65.7%	99.9%	47.3%	81.2%	47.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	65.8%	99.9%	47.3%	81.2%	47.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	71.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗