KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

81%

66%

48%

47%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

WN2NO 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.40u · WN2 −26.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	89.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	9.0%	—	—	88.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	5.5%	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	86.7%	43.0%	26.9%	—	77.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	94.1%	88.0%	65.7%	—	93.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	94.8%	90.3%	62.0%	—	87.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	88.1%	93.8%	55.6%	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	87.5%	93.2%	41.7%	—	70.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	48.3%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	61.3%	85.4%	24.1%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	67.4%	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	65.3%	79.1%	14.9%	—	39.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	59.4%	81.0%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	61.5%	76.8%	24.7%	—	46.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	68.3%	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	67.0%	79.5%	25.9%	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	59.5%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	58.7%	77.8%	24.7%	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	61.1%	78.6%	0.1%	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	58.1%	81.0%	39.6%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	63.0%	84.8%	48.8%	—	64.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	63.4%	87.6%	58.7%	58.7%	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	55.1%	89.7%	60.2%	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	52.7%	90.5%	52.7%	46.0%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	67.5%	88.9%	56.9%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	85.4%	89.8%	68.2%	68.2%	77.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	77.6%	83.8%	44.0%	—	57.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	77.4%	91.1%	46.8%	72.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	85.9%	87.7%	63.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	77.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	71.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗