KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

51%

49%

33%

19%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

ICONNO 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.85u · ICON −42.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:04+00:00	39.0%	97.8%	18.7%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	39.0%	97.8%	22.0%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	39.0%	97.8%	22.0%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	39.0%	97.8%	22.0%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	39.0%	97.8%	22.0%	37.7%	49.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	22.0%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	22.0%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	22.0%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	22.0%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	20.3%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	43.5%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	47.1%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	47.1%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	47.1%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	47.1%	97.8%	26.7%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	47.1%	99.4%	19.2%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	47.1%	99.4%	19.2%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	47.1%	99.4%	19.2%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	47.1%	99.4%	19.2%	31.1%	33.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	46.1%	99.3%	19.2%	56.8%	33.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	22.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	22.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	22.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	19.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	19.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	46.0%	95.5%	19.5%	63.7%	26.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	43.9%	95.5%	19.5%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	43.9%	95.5%	19.5%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	43.9%	95.5%	19.5%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	43.9%	95.5%	19.5%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	43.9%	95.5%	19.5%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	43.9%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	43.9%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	43.9%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	18.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	48.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	48.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	48.6%	33.4%	18.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	51.0%	95.4%	48.6%	33.4%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	70.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗