KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

51%

49%

33%

19%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

ICONNO 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.85u · ICON −42.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	4.9%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	77.6%	29.8%	16.6%	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	88.3%	79.0%	51.5%	—	86.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	82.1%	46.9%	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	78.2%	87.3%	39.7%	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	76.8%	85.7%	26.5%	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	31.9%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	43.9%	73.1%	12.7%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	50.0%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	47.2%	63.6%	6.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	40.6%	65.7%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	42.3%	59.6%	12.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	49.0%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	46.9%	62.2%	12.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	38.5%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	37.1%	58.7%	10.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	38.9%	59.0%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	35.2%	61.5%	19.9%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	39.3%	66.4%	26.3%	—	40.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	38.9%	70.2%	34.2%	34.2%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	30.2%	73.1%	34.9%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	27.3%	73.9%	27.3%	22.0%	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	40.3%	70.0%	30.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	62.8%	70.7%	40.0%	40.0%	51.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	50.0%	59.0%	18.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	48.4%	71.0%	19.2%	42.1%	37.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	59.8%	63.0%	30.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	70.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗