KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

30%

23%

22%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

WN2NO 50.7¢Risks 50.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.70u · WN2 −50.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00	11.1%	83.2%	44.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	11.1%	83.2%	44.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	11.1%	83.2%	44.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	11.1%	83.2%	44.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00	11.1%	83.2%	44.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00	11.1%	77.3%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00	11.1%	77.3%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	11.1%	77.3%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	35.3%	77.3%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	35.4%	77.3%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:58+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	20.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	22.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	22.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	35.4%	78.1%	22.7%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	22.7%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	22.7%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	22.7%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	22.7%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	22.7%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	58.5%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	63.3%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	63.3%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	63.3%	78.1%	35.8%	91.3%	75.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	19.8%	92.9%	10.3%	41.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	19.8%	92.9%	10.8%	41.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	19.8%	92.9%	10.8%	41.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	19.8%	92.9%	10.8%	41.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	10.8%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	10.8%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	10.8%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	10.8%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	10.8%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	24.2%	92.9%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	24.2%	91.1%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	24.2%	91.1%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	22.8%	91.1%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	22.7%	90.9%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	22.7%	91.7%	6.9%	22.3%	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	76.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	67.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗