KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

30%

23%

22%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

WN2NO 50.7¢Risks 50.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.70u · WN2 −50.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	65.7%	18.9%	9.3%	—	51.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	79.5%	67.0%	37.1%	—	77.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	80.5%	70.4%	32.3%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	64.8%	77.0%	25.5%	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	62.3%	74.2%	14.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	18.4%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	27.7%	57.0%	5.7%	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	32.6%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	29.7%	45.4%	2.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	24.7%	40.4%	4.9%	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	29.9%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	27.6%	41.8%	4.7%	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	20.5%	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	19.0%	37.1%	3.8%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	19.8%	36.7%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	16.8%	38.5%	7.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	19.1%	42.8%	10.8%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	18.2%	46.3%	15.1%	15.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	12.2%	48.7%	15.0%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	10.1%	48.7%	10.1%	7.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	17.3%	43.1%	11.1%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	34.5%	42.8%	16.3%	16.3%	24.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	22.4%	29.8%	4.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	20.3%	40.6%	4.8%	16.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	28.1%	30.9%	9.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	76.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	67.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗