KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

30%

27%

10%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

WN2NO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.15u · WN2 −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:45+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	22.1%	85.1%	68.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	22.1%	85.1%	68.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	21.5%	85.1%	68.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	21.5%	85.1%	68.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	21.5%	85.1%	68.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:43+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	21.5%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	21.5%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	21.5%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	21.5%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	21.5%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	32.5%	70.0%	26.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	32.5%	82.4%	26.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	32.5%	82.4%	26.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	26.1%	82.4%	26.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	26.1%	82.3%	27.0%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:37+00:00	26.1%	82.3%	27.0%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	26.1%	83.1%	27.0%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	26.1%	83.3%	27.0%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	26.1%	83.3%	17.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	26.1%	83.3%	17.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	26.1%	83.3%	17.9%	88.9%	80.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	16.8%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	24.3%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	24.3%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	24.3%	83.3%	17.9%	58.4%	80.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	4.5%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	4.5%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	4.5%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	3.0%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	3.0%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	12.0%	80.1%	3.0%	31.6%	26.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.0%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.0%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.0%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.0%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.0%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	10.8%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	10.0%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	10.0%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	10.0%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	10.0%	80.1%	3.6%	26.8%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	71.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	71.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	68.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗