KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

30%

27%

10%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

WN2NO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.15u · WN2 −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	52.1%	10.9%	4.7%	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	67.7%	52.9%	24.3%	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	68.4%	56.1%	20.0%	—	50.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	49.2%	63.3%	14.5%	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	45.8%	59.1%	7.1%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.2%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	15.1%	39.6%	2.2%	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	18.4%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	16.0%	28.2%	0.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.8%	29.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.1%	23.2%	1.6%	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	15.2%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	13.4%	23.5%	1.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	8.8%	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.7%	19.0%	1.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.9%	18.3%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.1%	19.1%	2.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.0%	21.6%	3.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.3%	23.6%	4.9%	4.9%	6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.5%	24.8%	4.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.6%	24.0%	2.6%	1.7%	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.0%	19.1%	2.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	13.0%	18.2%	4.4%	4.4%	7.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.5%	9.9%	0.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.2%	15.2%	0.7%	3.7%	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	9.2%	1.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	71.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	71.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	68.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗