WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
75%
ICON
44%
HRES
24%
AIFS
5%
WN2
2%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u
VS
WN2NO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.30u · WN2 −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00IFS HRES: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00ICON: 43.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:0010-13 15:4110-13 21:4310-14 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:007.0%75.3%2.2%24.4%46.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:007.0%75.3%2.2%24.7%46.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:007.0%75.3%1.7%24.7%46.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:007.0%75.3%1.7%24.7%46.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:007.0%75.3%1.7%24.7%46.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:007.0%75.3%1.7%24.7%46.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:008.2%75.3%1.7%24.7%43.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:008.2%75.3%1.7%24.7%43.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:008.2%75.3%1.7%24.7%43.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:008.2%75.3%1.7%24.7%43.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:008.2%75.3%2.0%24.7%43.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:008.2%75.3%2.1%24.4%43.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:008.2%75.3%2.1%24.4%43.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:004.7%75.3%2.1%24.4%43.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:004.7%75.3%2.1%24.4%43.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:004.7%75.3%2.1%24.4%43.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble75%80.1°F3.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%78.0°F5.2°F2026-10-13 14:00Pending
National Blend54%78.0°F5.3°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending
ICON44%76.6°F5.9°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES24%73.5°F5.8°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%69.2°F5.0°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.1°F4.1°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗