KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

44%

24%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

WN2NO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.30u · WN2 −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	31.7%	3.9%	1.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	46.4%	31.7%	10.6%	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	46.2%	33.7%	7.8%	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	26.8%	39.7%	4.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	23.2%	34.5%	1.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.5%	17.8%	0.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.7%	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.6%	10.2%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.9%	10.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.9%	7.2%	0.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.8%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.0%	6.7%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	4.5%	0.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	4.0%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	4.5%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	4.9%	0.5%	0.5%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	4.9%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	2.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	44%	76.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗