KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

30%

21%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.00u · WN2 −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	3.3%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	3.3%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	19.3%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	78.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	5.8%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	20.9%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	11.4%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	64.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	7.6%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	7.6%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	7.6%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	7.6%	55.4%	7.2%	50.0%	29.9%
2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00	7.6%	55.4%	7.2%	20.8%	29.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	7.6%	44.2%	1.8%	20.8%	29.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	7.6%	44.2%	1.8%	20.8%	29.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	7.6%	44.2%	1.8%	20.8%	29.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	8.5%	44.2%	1.8%	20.8%	29.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	8.6%	44.2%	1.8%	20.8%	30.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	80.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	78.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗