KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

30%

21%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.00u · WN2 −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	6.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	8.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	72.0%	38.2%	0.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	64.3%	14.0%	20.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	42.4%	7.0%	4.4%	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.7%	14.5%	1.1%	—	7.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.4%	12.5%	0.7%	—	2.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.8%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.3%	16.7%	0.4%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	8.5%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	14.4%	0.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.0%	8.2%	1.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.8%	6.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.8%	7.1%	1.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.3%	7.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.5%	8.1%	1.2%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.9%	8.7%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	7.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	6.2%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.3%	5.9%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	2.8%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	2.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	1.5%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	80.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	78.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗