KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

38%

37%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

WN2NO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.65u · WN2 −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:11+00:00	9.1%	55.1%	0.4%	49.4%	72.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	9.1%	55.1%	0.4%	49.4%	72.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	9.1%	55.1%	2.2%	49.4%	72.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	9.1%	55.1%	2.2%	49.4%	72.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	9.1%	55.1%	2.2%	49.4%	72.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	11.0%	55.1%	2.2%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	11.0%	55.1%	2.2%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	11.0%	55.1%	2.2%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	11.0%	55.1%	2.2%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	11.0%	55.1%	2.2%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	11.0%	36.7%	1.1%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	11.0%	36.7%	1.1%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	11.0%	36.7%	1.1%	38.0%	69.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	10.7%	36.7%	1.2%	38.0%	69.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	10.7%	36.7%	1.2%	38.0%	69.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	87.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	81.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	76.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗