KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

38%

37%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

WN2NO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.65u · WN2 −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	3.0%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.1%	4.5%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	59.1%	25.7%	0.1%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	7.4%	11.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	28.3%	3.2%	1.8%	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.2%	7.2%	0.4%	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.1%	5.8%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	8.0%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.4%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.8%	6.3%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.0%	0.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	2.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	2.4%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	2.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	2.7%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	87.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	81.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	76.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗