KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.2¢Risks 11.15u

WN2NO 88.8¢Risks 88.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.85u · WN2 −88.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:44+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.6%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.6%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.6%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.6%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.6%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	1.6%	14.1%	0.2%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	1.6%	16.3%	0.2%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	1.6%	16.3%	0.2%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	2.6%	16.3%	0.2%	45.0%	1.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	2.6%	16.3%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:37+00:00	2.6%	16.3%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	2.6%	16.8%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	2.6%	16.8%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	2.6%	16.8%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	2.6%	16.8%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	2.6%	16.8%	0.2%	45.0%	1.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.1%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.1%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	0.8%	16.8%	0.1%	16.8%	49.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	0.9%	16.8%	0.1%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.9%	16.8%	0.1%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.9%	16.8%	0.1%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.9%	16.8%	0.1%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.9%	16.8%	0.1%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	0.9%	4.5%	0.0%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	0.9%	4.5%	0.0%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.9%	4.5%	0.0%	11.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	0.9%	4.5%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	0.9%	4.5%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:47+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.0%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	1.0%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	0.1%	11.1%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	84.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	81.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	81.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	82.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗