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KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
EPS
15%
ICON
14%
AIFS
12%
WN2
2%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 18.0¢Risks 18.00u
VS
WN2NO 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.00u · WN2 −82.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.6% · 2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 63.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00ICON: 63.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 63.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 63.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 63.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0010-14 03:4510-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:006.3%44.6%4.4%41.3%63.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:006.3%44.6%4.4%41.3%63.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:006.3%44.6%4.4%41.3%63.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:006.3%44.6%4.4%41.3%63.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:006.3%44.6%4.4%41.3%63.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:0010.0%44.6%4.4%41.3%14.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0010.0%44.6%4.4%41.3%14.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:0010.0%44.6%4.4%41.3%14.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0010.0%44.6%4.4%41.3%14.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:53+00:0010.0%44.6%4.4%33.5%14.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:0010.0%14.7%2.4%33.5%14.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:0010.0%14.7%2.4%33.5%14.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0010.0%14.7%2.4%33.5%14.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:0011.7%14.7%2.4%33.5%14.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0012.5%14.8%2.5%33.5%14.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
National Blend38%84.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES34%82.7°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%81.8°F3.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON14%77.9°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%79.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%76.4°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗