KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

15%

14%

12%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 18.0¢Risks 18.00u

WN2NO 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.00u · WN2 −82.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	21.7%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	9.0%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	43.0%	13.4%	0.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.0%	19.9%	3.9%	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	11.0%	7.8%	2.8%	—	3.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.5%	11.1%	0.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.7%	19.5%	0.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.6%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.7%	6.8%	0.8%	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.9%	5.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.4%	5.3%	1.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.0%	3.8%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	4.0%	1.1%	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	1.2%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.2%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.9%	0.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	38%	84.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	82.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	81.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	77.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	76.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗