KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u

WN2NO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.81u · WN2 −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:53+00:00	0.9%	34.3%	1.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.9%	34.3%	1.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.9%	34.3%	1.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.9%	34.3%	1.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.9%	34.3%	1.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	0.9%	27.7%	0.4%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	0.9%	27.7%	0.4%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.9%	27.7%	0.4%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	0.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	0.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:47+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	0.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	0.5%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	1.2%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	6.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	56.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	56.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	56.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.2%	42.5%	56.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	2.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	3.0%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	56.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	4.8%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	4.8%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	4.8%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	4.8%	27.7%	1.7%	29.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:54+00:00	4.8%	27.7%	1.7%	23.2%	8.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	4.8%	5.3%	0.8%	23.2%	8.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	4.8%	5.3%	0.8%	23.2%	8.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	4.8%	5.3%	0.8%	23.2%	8.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	5.9%	5.3%	0.8%	23.2%	8.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	6.4%	5.4%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	6.4%	5.9%	0.9%	23.3%	8.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	0.9%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	0.9%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	0.9%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	0.9%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	3.0%	5.9%	0.9%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	3.0%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	3.0%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	3.0%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	0.7%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	1.4%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	1.4%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	1.4%	14.7%	24.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	1.4%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	1.4%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	1.4%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	1.4%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	1.4%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	2.1%	6.0%	0.3%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	2.1%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	2.1%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	10.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:06+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.3%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.7%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.7%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.7%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	7.4%	8.5%	0.7%	9.4%	11.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.7%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.7%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.7%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.7%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	2.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.6%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	3.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	15.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	2.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	2.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	2.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	2.0%	8.5%	0.5%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	2.0%	9.3%	0.2%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	2.0%	9.3%	0.2%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	2.0%	9.3%	0.2%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	2.0%	9.3%	0.2%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	2.6%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	3.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	5.7%	4.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	3.2%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	3.3%	9.3%	0.2%	6.9%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	9%	83.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	80.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	79.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	81.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗