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KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
9%
HRES
7%
ICON
5%
AIFS
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u
VS
WN2NO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.81u · WN2 −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-12 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.9%————2.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:007.3%————3.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%————3.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.3%————3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:006.8%————3.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.2%————4.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.8%————7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.8%————13.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.4%————17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:008.4%————15.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:006.7%————19.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.4%—4.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.8%————12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.9%—27.0%——21.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%—14.5%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%—13.4%——9.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.3%—12.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%4.7%——13.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.2%—12.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.3%29.8%7.2%0.0%—10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—14.4%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.8%11.3%1.7%—4.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.3%—4.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%5.4%3.6%1.1%—1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.3%—11.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.3%2.3%5.3%0.2%—2.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.4%—10.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%3.3%10.1%0.3%—1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%2.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%2.7%0.2%—1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.9%1.8%——1.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%1.1%1.9%0.3%—1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%1.2%——1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%1.2%0.3%—1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.8%1.1%——0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.6%——0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.3%0.1%—0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.4%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.1%0.1%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble9%83.8°F2.8°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%80.1°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
ICON5%79.3°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend3%81.0°F3.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%79.1°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast3%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%76.8°F3.7°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗