KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

25%

14%

11%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.0¢Risks 19.00u

WN2NO 81.0¢Risks 81.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.00u · WN2 −81.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:54+00:00	24.9%	57.2%	21.3%	55.0%	17.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	24.9%	40.1%	17.3%	55.0%	17.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	24.9%	40.1%	17.3%	55.0%	17.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	24.9%	40.1%	17.3%	55.0%	17.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	32.8%	40.1%	17.3%	55.0%	17.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	32.8%	40.1%	17.4%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	17.4%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	17.4%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	17.4%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	15.0%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	15.0%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	32.8%	42.3%	15.0%	55.0%	17.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	15.0%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	15.0%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	15.0%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	15.0%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	15.0%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	25.5%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	11.6%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	16.9%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	16.9%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	27.9%	42.3%	16.9%	36.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	16.9%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	16.9%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	16.9%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	16.9%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	16.9%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	19.2%	42.3%	12.8%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	19.2%	34.7%	12.8%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	19.2%	34.7%	12.8%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	34.8%	34.7%	12.8%	36.9%	34.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	34.8%	34.7%	12.8%	36.9%	34.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	34.8%	35.4%	12.8%	36.9%	34.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	19.7%	35.4%	16.8%	26.2%	50.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	19.7%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	50.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	19.7%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	50.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	19.7%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	50.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	19.7%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	50.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	13.4%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	13.4%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	13.4%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	13.4%	35.4%	13.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	13.4%	52.8%	8.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	13.4%	52.8%	8.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	13.4%	52.8%	8.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	13.4%	52.8%	8.3%	26.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	16.2%	52.8%	8.3%	27.2%	36.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	13.3%	43.6%	2.7%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	13.3%	43.6%	4.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	13.3%	43.6%	4.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.3%	43.6%	4.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	13.3%	43.6%	4.1%	16.4%	23.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	12.1%	43.6%	4.1%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	12.1%	43.6%	4.1%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	12.1%	43.6%	4.1%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	12.1%	43.6%	4.1%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	12.1%	43.6%	4.1%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	12.1%	35.7%	1.9%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	12.1%	35.7%	1.9%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	12.1%	35.7%	1.9%	25.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	11.2%	36.1%	1.9%	25.1%	13.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	11.2%	36.1%	1.9%	25.1%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	84.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	82.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	81.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	80.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗