KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

25%

14%

11%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.0¢Risks 19.00u

WN2NO 81.0¢Risks 81.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.00u · WN2 −81.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	7.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	9.8%	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	3.8%	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	48.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.9%	29.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	16.6%	31.1%	0.1%	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	37.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	12.0%	30.4%	2.9%	22.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	30.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	25.1%	31.6%	8.7%	16.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	20.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	16.9%	20.6%	12.7%	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	12.9%	14.8%	12.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.2%	16.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.1%	16.1%	7.3%	15.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	14.0%	22.9%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.0%	14.4%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.6%	13.7%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	10.7%	14.7%	4.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.6%	19.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.9%	14.5%	1.6%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	11.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	10.4%	0.9%	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.3%	12.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	84.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	82.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	81.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	80.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗