KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

40%

31%

20%

12%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

WN2NO 69.7¢Risks 69.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.65u · WN2 −69.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:46+00:00	25.8%	51.3%	25.2%	41.4%	57.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	25.8%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	57.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	25.8%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	57.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	25.8%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	57.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	25.8%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	57.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	18.7%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	18.7%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	18.7%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	18.7%	51.3%	21.0%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	16.2%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	16.2%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	16.2%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	16.2%	41.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	22.4%	43.2%	16.2%	36.4%	62.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	27.1%	41.9%	28.9%	45.8%	52.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	27.1%	41.9%	26.0%	45.8%	52.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	27.1%	41.9%	26.0%	45.8%	52.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	27.1%	41.9%	26.0%	45.8%	52.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	23.4%	41.9%	26.0%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	23.4%	41.9%	26.0%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	23.4%	41.9%	26.0%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	23.4%	41.9%	26.0%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	23.4%	41.9%	26.0%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	23.4%	65.0%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	23.4%	65.0%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	23.4%	65.0%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	22.2%	65.0%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	22.1%	65.0%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	17.8%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	11.2%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	11.2%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	22.1%	48.6%	11.2%	49.3%	49.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	11.2%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	11.2%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	11.2%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	11.2%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	11.2%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	20.4%	48.6%	12.1%	30.8%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	86.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	84.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	83.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗