KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

40%

31%

20%

12%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.35u

WN2NO 69.7¢Risks 69.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.65u · WN2 −69.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	42.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	27.5%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	54.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	55.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	38.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	30.0%	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	29.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	31.7%	28.1%	0.3%	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	20.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	39.9%	36.4%	24.9%	24.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	31.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	27.0%	16.4%	25.8%	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	28.8%	28.1%	13.6%	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	36.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	18.4%	16.8%	6.1%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.7%	27.4%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	17.8%	26.9%	8.0%	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	17.2%	32.6%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	16.6%	20.9%	5.8%	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	18.4%	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	19.7%	13.1%	4.4%	20.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	17.0%	15.8%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	86.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	84.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	83.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗