KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

WN2NO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.10u · WN2 −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:04+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	11.1%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	11.1%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	11.1%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	11.1%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	11.1%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	12.7%	21.2%	8.4%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	12.7%	15.9%	8.4%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	12.7%	15.9%	8.4%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	19.7%	15.9%	8.4%	33.5%	1.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	20.0%	15.9%	8.7%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	8.7%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:08+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	8.7%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	12.3%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	12.3%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	12.3%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	20.0%	16.7%	12.3%	33.7%	1.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	12.3%	24.6%	45.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	12.3%	24.6%	45.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	12.3%	24.6%	45.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	12.3%	24.6%	45.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	10.4%	24.6%	45.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	8.6%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:47+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	10.4%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	12.0%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	7.4%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	7.4%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	7.4%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	7.4%	16.7%	8.1%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	7.4%	11.7%	5.2%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	7.4%	11.7%	5.2%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	7.4%	11.7%	5.2%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	7.4%	11.7%	5.2%	24.7%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	9.5%	11.7%	5.2%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	5.2%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	5.2%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	5.2%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	9.5%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	46.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	6.7%	21.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	6.7%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	10.4%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	11.5%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	9.9%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	9.9%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	12.2%	11.0%	9.9%	28.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	9.2%	11.0%	9.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	9.2%	11.0%	9.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	9.2%	11.0%	9.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	9.2%	11.0%	9.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	9.2%	11.0%	9.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	9.2%	22.1%	4.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	9.2%	22.1%	4.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	9.2%	22.1%	4.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	8.5%	22.1%	4.9%	29.6%	30.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	8.5%	22.1%	4.9%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	4.9%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	4.9%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	4.9%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	2.6%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	2.6%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	8.5%	14.3%	2.6%	29.6%	30.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.6%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	2.9%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	7.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.4%	22.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	4.2%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	5.6%	13.5%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.4%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.1%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.1%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.1%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	5.6%	9.7%	1.1%	15.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	1.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	1.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	1.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	1.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	0.7%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	13.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	19.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	19.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	19.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	19.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	5.8%	9.7%	2.1%	19.1%	7.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	5.8%	10.1%	0.5%	19.1%	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	85.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	82.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗