KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

WN2NO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.10u · WN2 −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	25.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	14.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	35.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	36.0%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	21.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	15.1%	—	13.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	14.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	15.8%	13.4%	0.1%	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	21.0%	18.4%	10.9%	10.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	11.8%	6.0%	11.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.3%	11.9%	4.5%	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	16.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.3%	5.6%	1.5%	4.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	10.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.7%	10.1%	1.9%	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.2%	13.0%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.8%	6.6%	1.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.3%	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.6%	3.2%	0.7%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.4%	4.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	85.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	82.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗