KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

47%

44%

23%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

WN2NO 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.95u · WN2 −68.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	31.3%	60.2%	30.5%	46.9%	66.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	31.3%	60.2%	27.8%	46.9%	66.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	31.3%	60.2%	27.8%	46.9%	66.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	31.3%	60.2%	27.8%	46.9%	66.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	28.3%	60.2%	27.8%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	28.3%	60.2%	27.8%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	28.3%	60.2%	27.8%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	28.3%	60.2%	27.8%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	28.3%	60.2%	27.8%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	28.3%	64.2%	24.0%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	28.3%	64.2%	24.0%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	28.3%	64.2%	24.0%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	24.7%	64.2%	24.0%	51.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	24.7%	64.2%	24.0%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	24.0%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	24.0%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	24.0%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	17.4%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	17.4%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	17.4%	51.8%	59.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	17.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	17.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	17.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	17.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	17.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	20.8%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	15.3%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	23.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	23.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	23.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	24.7%	48.7%	23.4%	36.4%	53.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	23.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	23.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	23.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	23.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	23.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	21.0%	54.6%	13.2%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	21.0%	54.6%	13.2%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	21.0%	54.6%	13.2%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	21.0%	54.6%	13.2%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	21.0%	54.6%	13.2%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	21.0%	45.6%	9.9%	31.4%	43.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	21.0%	45.6%	16.5%	31.4%	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	21.0%	45.6%	16.5%	31.4%	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	21.0%	45.6%	16.5%	31.4%	43.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	22.9%	45.6%	16.5%	46.8%	44.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	22.9%	45.6%	16.5%	46.8%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	22.9%	45.6%	16.5%	46.8%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	22.9%	45.6%	16.5%	46.8%	44.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	22.9%	45.6%	16.5%	46.8%	44.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	22.9%	48.5%	13.6%	46.8%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	86.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	82.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗