KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

47%

44%

16%

14%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.0¢Risks 31.00u

WN2NO 69.0¢Risks 69.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +69.00u · WN2 −69.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	25.9%	—	17.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	54.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	1.8%	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	28.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.7%	22.8%	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	46.5%	28.1%	4.0%	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	36.4%	26.0%	12.4%	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	37.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	27.7%	29.6%	11.4%	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	38.5%	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	30.1%	34.5%	13.1%	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	36.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	21.9%	23.2%	12.9%	20.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	7.2%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	29.9%	24.8%	8.3%	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	24.9%	21.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	86.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	82.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	82.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗